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JPY: Japanese economy on cloud nine if TPP comes in force – Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 7, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, suggest that negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership resulted in a historic agreement on 5 October and successful negotiations for the TPP, which aims to open markets in a range of areas and unify rules for member countries that represent some 40% of the global economy, are likely to be viewed as a key outcome for the strong commitment to growth strategies by the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The opening up of domestic and foreign markets and unification of rules will likely have a major bearing on Japan’s economy.

    Key Quotes

    “The agreement includes items that should encourage exports and overseas activity by Japanese companies and items that will lead to the opening up of markets in Japan, on which basis we think they will lead to stronger growth potential for the Japanese economy over the medium term.”

    “In terms of stimulating exports and overseas activities by Japanese companies, items that will likely have a key role to play include the phased abolition of tariffs on exports of industrial products, improved access for exports of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products, liberalization of trade in services and of financial services, the opening up of government procurement markets, and improved protection of intellectual property.”

    “In particular, 67% of industrial goods categories exported to the US will become tariff-free when the TPP comes into force, versus 39% at present. The TPP will also open up government procurement markets in Malaysia and Vietnam, where to date Japanese companies have not been on a level playing field. These measures, if implemented, would likely be a positive for industries in a relatively advantageous position in both the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors.”

    “Meanwhile, among policies that will open up Japanese markets, we see the opening up of agricultural markets as a key area. The TPP will involve bigger quotas and lower tariffs for imports of rice, wheat, beef, pork, and dairy products from other member countries. As well as stoking competition in these agricultural markets, lower procurement prices should benefit Japanese consumers.”

    “The government has calculated benefits to the Japanese economy of around ¥3.2trn. While it is difficult to estimate quantitative effects, the benefits could be even greater if the benefits in terms of services and rule unification are combined.”

    Check here for recent report on TPP. US, Japan and 10 other Pacific Rim nations mark landmark deal – Deutsche Bank
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