JPY: November’s trade balance slipped back into a deficit - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 17, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, notes that the Japan's November trade balance slipped back into a deficit and although that was not surprising, how it got there was.

    Key Quotes

    “Exports fell twice the pace the market expected, contracting 3.3% year-over-year. This is the second consecutive month of year-over-year declines, and the December and January reports are also likely to be challenging due to base effects. This is the weakest report since the end of 2012.”

    “Imports also fell more than expected, but less than in October. Imports in November fell 10.2% year-over-year. The consensus was for a 7.3% decline after the 13.4% fall in October. Given the past decline of the yen (more a 2014 story than 2015), the export performance has surprised many observers. The dollar's gains were extended to almost JPY122.65 in Asia and drifted lower in Europe. Lower US Treasury yields, which would act as a drag, have been neutralized by the rally in stocks. The JPY122.40 area corresponds with a 61.8% retracement of the post-ECB drop. A break now of JPY122.00 would suggest a new consolidative phase.”
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