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JPY: Retail investors are positive for risk – Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, notes that according to the latest Nomura Individual Investor Survey (4-5 January), retail investors’ views on the Japanese equity market recovered for the third consecutive month, as Nomura’s I-View index has risen again.

    Key Quotes

    “The Nomura I-View Index, which shows retail investors' views on Japanese equity prices over the next three months, rose to 55.4 from 53.4 in December, recording the highest level since January 2015. From June to August the index was around 35, but has now been above 50 for the third consecutive month. More than 30% of retail investors expect the Nikkei average to rise by about 2000pts from the reference level (18450 as of 4 January), while another 30% expect the Nikkei average to rise by about 1000pts over the same period.

    Toshin companies bought Japanese equities aggressively in December, at the highest pace since May 2006. Momentum of foreign investment via toshins has also recovered recently. As the seasonality of retail investment via NISA will likely support momentum of risky asset purchases by retail investors, there is likely to be strong dip-buying demand from Japanese retail investors.

    Expectations for JPY weakness against USD have also recovered. The share of retail investors expecting USD/JPY appreciation over the next three months recovered to 51.4% in January from 45.9% the previous month. The reference level has declined to 119.77 from 123.29 in December and the lower USD/JPY level likely changed retail investors’ view on USD/JPY.

    Retail investors’ preference for USD has remained high too. The preference DI for USD inched down to 36.6 in January from 40.2 in December, suggesting retail investors will continue to look for dip-buying opportunities in USD-denominated assets, limiting downside risks for USD/JPY in our view. In contrast, CNY’s popularity declined again in January.”
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