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Key data ahead of next FOMC - UOB

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 11, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at UOB Group noted that the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be the last one for 2015 and will be held on 15-16 Dec (which is accompanied by the updated Summary of Economic Projections and a scheduled press conference by Janet Yellen).

    Key Quotes:

    "We are still expecting the Fed rate normalization to be an eventuality. The hawkish October FOMC on 28 October when the Fed surprised markets with specific reference to “whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting”, followed this week’s comments from FOMC Chair Janet Yellen & New York Fed President Bill Dudley (both on 4 Nov) have put the December FOMC firmly as a live possibility for the first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade. The October jobs report is a firm reaffirmation to a rate hike in December."

    "We still expect the first Fed rate hike to take place in the 15-16 Dec 2015 FOMC and we keep our rate hike trajectory projection, bringing the FFTR to 0.5% by end-2015 and to 1.5% by end-2016 in lieu of the dot-plot chart revisions (as updated in the September FOMC). That said, the Fed has provided many false dawns on the rate normalization timeline in 2015 as well as its continued emphasis that their monetary policy formulation is data-dependent."

    "Thus, there remains significant risk to our projected timeline and trajectory for the FOMC rate normalization cycle. After the jobs data, there are still many incoming data points that may still sway our Dec FOMC expectations."

    "The 2 key events to watch are 1) on 3 December when FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will first deliver a speech to the Economic Club of Washington and then testifying before the congressional joint Economic Committee in an annual appearance to discuss economic outlook on the same day, and 2) the US November labor market report due on 4 December. There may be some focus on the 2nd estimate for the 3Q 2015 GDP on 24 November but the 4Q GDP will not be available until next year, 29 Jan 2016."
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