Key events ahead and recent oil driven volatility - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation noted that that the failure of Sunday's Doha talks to agree to a production freeze jolted FX markets at Monday's open, with AUD/USD, USD/JPY etc dropping in anticipation of a fall in energy and equity prices.

    Key Quotes:

    "Brent crude oil fell for a third straight day on Friday, ahead of the weekend’s oil producer meeting where Saudi Arabia effectively scotched any deal. Brent crude oil dropped more than 6% when futures opened though it is debatable how much prospect of a deal was priced in.

    AUD/USD traded comfortably in New York Friday, mostly above 0.7700 and 0.7725 into the weekend, but tumbled as low as 0.7594 very early Monday, before steadying around 0.7665. CFTC data showed leveraged funds trimmed their AUD net longs slightly over the week to 12 Apr, from 36k to 34, while asset managers almost entirely reversed the previous week’s reduction in longs, extending their net position from 25k to 33k.

    New Zealand CPI rose 0.2% in Q1 (median 0.1%), taking annual inflation to 0.4%. Inflation was in line with the RBNZ's forecast. As expected, falling petrol prices and airfares kept inflation limited in the quarter. This reduces the chances of a rate cut next week: pricing for a move dropped from 37% to 30%. NZD/USD had opened lower, around 0.6870, but bounced from 0.6890 to 0.6920/30 on the CPI data. This left AUD/NZD testing under 1.11, compared to 1.1170 into the weekend.

    Today's calendar is light:

    China property prices, Singapore exports.

    In the US there is the Apr NAHB housing market index. This is seen remain at a robust level, ticking up to 59. NY Fed president Dudley gives opening remarks at a conference and Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari delivers a speech with Q&A."
    For more information, read our latest forex news.

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