Key events ahead - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 2, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac noted the key events ahead.

    Key Quotes:

    "RBA governor Stevens remains in Perth after the Board meeting there yesterday, speaking at 11:10amSyd/8:10am Sing/HK/local, on "Economic Conditions and Prospects." While the RBA passed up the chance to jawbone AUD yesterday, we wouldn't be surprised if Stevens took a little swing at it today, perhaps in the Q&A.

    Australia should report a rebound in growth in Q3 (11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK), enough to keep the RBA looking on the bright side for the economy into 2016. After guidance from various partial surveys over the past week, Westpac looks for a 0.9% q/q rise, well up on Q2’s 0.2%. Consensus is 0.8% q/q, 2.4% y/y. However we are looking for only 2.3% y/y rather than 2.5%, given downward revision to 2014/15 growth in the ABS’s annual accounts. Sizeable contributions to growth should come from net exports and consumption, with housing construction a small positive. Subtracting from growth should be both private and public investment.

    Asia’s calendar is low key. USD/CNY drifted higher in local spot trade to close CFETS at 6.3986, while USD/CNH remained bid, sitting at 6.4475 in the Sydney morning. The softer USD/majors tone should see the fixing nudged lower, to say 6.3950/60, for a marginal yuan rise versus Tuesday’s 6.3973 fixing.

    The advance Nov reading on Eurozone CPI is due, with consensus 0.2% y/y, 1.1% y/y on the core rate. Any divergence from expectations should be small and likely brushed aside when the ECB deliberates on Thursday.

    The US data highlight is Nov ADP private payrolls, despite the erratic guidance it provides for the official report. The median forecast is 190k. A busy Fed calendar starts with Governor Brainard who last we heard from her was not inclined to raise rates soon, then Atlanta Fed president Lockhart, a centrist who is leaning towards a hike this month. The Fed’s Beige Book of economic anecdotes is also due. But most attention will be on the speech by Chair Yellen to the Economic Club of Washington.

    The Bank of Canada is expected to hold steady at 0.5%, with official commentary pointing to steady rates for some time despite renewed weakness in oil prices."
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