Key events await in Europe and the US - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Analysts at Westpac explained that the Asian calendar is quiet but highlighted the key events further down the line today which will be a very busy time in the FX space.

    Key Quotes:

    "The UK Jan unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.1%, at levels last seen Jan 2006, though wages growth remains subdued. Consensus for US Jan headline CPI is -0.2% m/m and +0.9% y/y, down from 1.4% y/y as oil prices are weak for another month. Ex-food and energy, the market median forecast is +0.2% m/m and y/y steady at 2.2%. Housing starts have been choppy near highs since late 2007 over the past year and are expected to rise by 4.6% in Feb.

    No change in the Fed funds rate is 96% priced for the FOMC statement at 5am Syd/2am Sing/HK. But there will be plenty of interest in the statement itself, the quarterly forecasts of interest rates, GDP, unemployment and inflation and then the press conference by Fed chair Yellen which starts 30 minutes later. In the statement, a key point will be whether the FOMC is willing to resume its standard practice of judging the balance of risks to the outlook, after January’s surprise that they were assessing the situation so did not make a call on the balance of risks. We expect a more positive tone on the international outlook, leaving the door open for a June rate hike.

    In the Summary of Economic Projections, the Dec meeting produced a median forecast of 200bp of hikes in 2016-2017. This will obviously be revised down but if there is still say 50bp of hikes pencilled in for this year, yields and USD should rise. While there should be plenty of volatility through the releases and press conference, overall we expect the US dollar to emerge stronger."
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