Key events for the loonie - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 13, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities explained the key data events for Canada next week.

    Key Quotes:

    "Canada September Retail Sales (20 Nov): We are forecasting a 0.8% m/m decline in September retail sales. Much of the weakness is expected to be related to two sectors – gasoline and home furnishing sales. On a seasonally adjusted basis, we are tracking a near 6% m/m decline at the pump. On the other hand, existing home sales plummeted by nearly 4% in September, the worst decline since December last year (when oil began its downward spiral), with weakness widespread across a number of provinces. Autos are expected to be a modest positive but we do see a risk of a negative print following 7 consecutive monthly gains. Excluding this sector still leaves core spending tracking at -0.8% m/m. The food and beverage sector is also biased to the downside after a near 5% gain in alcohol sales. In volume terms, we expect retail sales to contract but not as weak as the nominal headline figure, which nonetheless still points to a drag for industry level GDP.

    Canada October CPI (20 Nov): Seasonal factors are expected to be moderately positive for the October CPI report, which includes a lift to shelter due to an annual increase in property taxes and clothing (albeit to a much lesser degree). However, we do see a marginal downside risk to our forecast for core CPI to advance by 0.3% m/m given that the recreational basket typically exerts a drag on the index. We see a much more tepid increase in the non-seasonally adjusted all-items index due to a drag from energy prices (which we estimate fell by approximately 3% m/m in October). on a year-ago basis, headline and core inflation are expected to decelerate slightly to 1.0% and 2.0% respectively, but given that the Bank has downplayed the traditional measures of inflation over the past several quarters, we do not expect this to hold much implication for monetary policy."
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