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Key events taking place ahead - Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 7, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the forthcoming key data events.

    Key events:

    "From potential highs (for USD/JPY) to potential lows, as we get Chinese FX reserves for September. Recall in August we saw a USD94bn drop, which adjusting for exchange-rate effects was around USD112bn, much of which was also back-loaded post-August 11.

    The extent to which reserves have fallen again due to capital flight and FX intervention will be a sign, along with what the BOJ may do, as to how much longer China can hold off allowing CNY/CNH to move substantially lower. Let me cynically add that with so much potentially riding on one number, the compilation of which is entirely opaque, the outcome is hard to predict.

    German industrial production is also out, seen 0.2% m-o-m. Will it surprise to the downside after the drop in factory orders? If so, the ante is upped for the ECB. (Are you spotting a pattern here, other than plaid?) UK industrial production is released too, seen 0.3% m-o-m, but any downside surprise there would be less of a shock.

    In the US we have the Fed’s Williams, a hawk given he stems from booming San Francisco: yesterday he stated that “it still makes sense to raise rates this year,” even if the markets aren’t completely on board with that. Let’s just say that after the US trade data yesterday, where a large deficit has seen consensus Q3 GDP forecasts cut again, the market is even less on board than before."
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