Key events: tone of FOMC statement - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac noted the key event (s) coming up.

    Key Quotes:

    "The FOMC releases its one page statement and the quarterly forecasts (Summary of Economic Projections) at 2pm NY/6am Sydney, followed 30 minutes later by Fed chair Yellen’s press conference. Bloomberg’s calculation of a 78% probability of a 25bp increase in the funds rate seems low, possibly skewed by an expectation that the effective rate will trade in the lower half of the expected 0.25-0.5% range.

    Most attention will instead be on the tone of the statement, the forecasts and Yellen’s comments. Growth and inflation forecasts probably don’t need to be revised sharply but the median projections on the funds rate will surely be lowered yet again.

    In Sep, the funds rate was seen at 1.4% by end-2016 and the longer run rate at 3.5%. Both were trimmed relative to June and should be again this time. Such headlines could offset the potential support for USD from confirmation of the rate hike.

    Yellen should stress data-dependence in following up with further tightening next year and will surely not drop any heavy hints about the timing of the next move. Noone can be confident how USD will emerge from all this but volatility seems assured.

    New Zealand Q3 GDP will be released late NY. We expect to see strong gains in manufacturing and services for the quarter and Westpac’s forecast of 0.9% q/q growth is a touch above consensus of 0.8%."
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