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Key US data on its way - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 21, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Nomura offered a preview for the US data later today.

    Key Quotes:

    "Q3 GDP, third estimate:

    We expect Q3 GDP to be revised down by 0.4pp in the second estimate to 1.7% (Consensus: 1.9%), from 2.1%. We expect the downward revision to be primarily due to lower-than-assumed inventory investment and a larger-than-expected trade deficit. We expect final sales growth to be revised down by 0.2pp to 2.5% and forecast that inventory investment will subtract 0.8pp from growth compared with the previously assumed 0.6pp.

    Existing home sales:

    Housing market data appear to have gathered more momentum this year, as improving consumer fundamentals are feeding through to the housing market. However, the pending home sales index, which usually leads existing home sales by a couple of months, has slowed recently, suggesting that the pace of growth in home sales may slow in the near term.

    We believe the tight supply of homes available for sale will constrain home sales to some extent in the near-to-medium term, and should lead to increased construction of new homes. Thus, we forecast that existing home sales declined by 3.0% to an annualized 5200k (Consensus: 5340k) in November."
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