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Kiwi – top performer in Asia, ECB Draghi’s speech – In focus

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 20, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - Both Antipodes outperformed in a data-deficient Asian session, mainly backed by the extension of the previous USD longs squeeze. While the dollar-yen pair stalled its recovery near 123 handle torn between mixed sentiment on the Asian equities and hawkish Fed speaks.

    Key headlines in Asia

    Fed has done 'everything' to avoid surprising markets: Fed’s Fischer

    Asian stocks trade mixed, Nikkei drops on stronger yen

    Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

    The US dollar staged an anaemic recovery from yesterday’s pullback, with the Antipodeans benefiting the most among the G10 currencies. The Kiwi extended the previous rebound and clinched fresh two-week highs above 0.66 handle after renewed buying interest was spurred on the back of upbeat NZ spending data. The NZ credit card spending was up 7.8% y/y in Oct, against a 7.3% rise in seen in Sept. While stabilizing commodity prices following the previous slump also helped the upside in the commodity currencies.

    The AUD/USD pair also hovers near two-week highs around 0.72 handle as comments from RBA’s Heath on the AUD levels and higher Australian stocks lift the overall sentiment. RBA official Heath noted that a weaker Australian dollar is providing the much-needed boost to the exports-led sector.

    USD/JPY consolidates to the upside before the next leg higher, as the greenback is expected to resume its bullish momentum. The yesterday’s slide in the greenback across the board is seen largely as a technical correction after the extensive rally last week backed by growing expectations of a Dec Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, the major trades near 122.85 levels, having faced rejection near hourly 200-SMA at 123.06.

    The Asian stocks trade mixed, with Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei losing -0.51% to 19,758 while mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite trades muted around 3,620 points while Australia’s S&P ASX index pares gains and trades modestly higher at 5,248. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallies 1.20% to 22,445.

    Heading into Europe & the US

    There is nothing of relevance to report in the European session in terms of economic data except for the second tier data in the German factory gate prices and UK’s public sector net borrowings due for release in the session ahead.

    Producer prices of German industrial products in October are expected to remain negative at 0.3% m/m, following a negative 0.4% result seen in Sept, while a decline of 2.2% is seen y/y after a 2.1% drop booked previously.

    Besides, we have a series of ECB officials speaking in the upcoming session. ECB President Draghi and Bundesbank President Weidmann are scheduled to deliver keynote speeches at the Euro Finance Week. ECB Vice-President Constancio will be speaking at a conference in Frankfurt, Germany. At the same event, ECB board member Benoît Cœuré will be also delivering a speech.

    Looking ahead, the US calendar remains absolutely data-empty, although we have a set of key data releases from Canada to fill in an otherwise quiet NA session. Canadian CPI and retail sales data will take the center stage ahead of Fed member Dudley speech on the US economy at Hofstra University, in New York.

    GBP/USD Technicals

    The Research Team at AceTrader noted, “Although the British pound fell briefly but sharply to session low at 1.5236 in European morning after the release of poor UK retail sales data, price was dragged higher by the weakness in USD and gained to 1.5275 before rallying in tandem with euro to intra-day high at 1.5336 at New York midday. However, renewed selling there pressured the pair lower and cable tumbled to 1.5286 near New York closing, then lower to 1.5270 in Asian morning before recovering. Offers are now seen at 1.5290/00 and more above at 1.5310/20 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.5240/50, suggesting selling on intra-day pullback is the way to go.”
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