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Latin American Currencies: the worst of the week

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 12, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Latin American currencies were the worst performers in the currency market during the week, affected by risk aversion and by the global growth outlook. The Argentinian peso lost the most and hit record lows as it continues to decline after lifting currency controls back in December.

    The US dollar reached all-time highs in Colombia, Argentina and Mexico. USD/COP broke to the upside after moving in a range for days and reached 3450 on Thursday's, and pulled back on Friday but ended the week above 3410.

    The decline in crude oil prices weakened the Mexican peso further. USD/MXN started around 18.40 and on Thursday broke above 19.00 and kept rising. It peaked at 19.44 and on Friday retreated on the back of falling crude oil prices and finished the week around 18.90, up more than 2.50% from the level it had a week ago.

    The best currency in the region was the Chilean peso. Economic data from Chile showed two versions: activity increased in December 1.5% YoY above expectations while inflation started the year higher that expected, with the CPI rising 0.5% in January (above 0.3% expected), pushing the annual rate to 4.8%. The central bank left interest rate unchanged at 3.5% as expected. USD/CLP reached 717 yesterday but on Friday dropped more than 1%, erasing weekly gains and ended below 705.

    The Brazilian real fell on Friday for the third consecutive day and boosted USD/BRL back above 4.00. The pair finished the week with a gain of 2.50% and at the highest level in almost two weeks.

    The outlook for Latam currencies remain weak and also for the economy. Growth remains low (or contracting) while inflation holds above the target of most central banks pushing interest rates higher. The fiscal outlook is even worst with the decline in export prices and weak economic activity.
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