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Limited GBP fallout from BoE announcement - BNPP

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 14, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, notes that the Bank of England is meeting on Thursday amid ongoing turbulence in the markets.

    Key Quotes

    “Our economists believe the Bank may express some concern about the impact of the fall in oil prices on inflation and wages although this is likely to be counterbalanced by lessened concern over GBP strength. Overall, policymakers are likely to refrain from sending significant new signals until the February Inflation Report.

    One risk to the GBP is if the vote split changes from 8-1 to 9-0 but with rates markets already priced for no tightening until well into 2017, the impact should be limited. Meanwhile the ECB will be publishing the minutes of its December meeting. Disappointment with the extent of ECB easing at that meeting suggests markets will be looking for signs of divisions within the Governing Council.

    Finally, we see Sweden’s CPI slowing to 0.0% y/y at the headline and 0.8% y/y at the core in December. The Riksbank has already signalled it is ready to intervene to counter SEK strength but we think it achieving SEK weakness will be problematic in 2016 as Swedish economy continues to outperform. We remain short EURSEK via a 9.00 put expiring in mid-2016.”
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