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Looking at high conviction trades - Westpac

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    Analysts at Westpac explained that their small portfolio of bearish euro trades - long USD/CHF & short EUR/USD - were stopped out at 0.9840 and 1.1110 respectively after Draghi signalled that the ECB has no plans to ease again.

    Key Quotes:

    "The lack of any meaningful EUR downside even as growth and policy differentials with the US start to palpably re-widen remains a deep a source of frustration. That said, still wedded to an eventual downside break below 1.08, though with the ECB unlikely to be the catalyst the onus falls on the Fed. 2016 Fed hike odds have risen to a more reasonable +30bp by Dec but still remain on the undercooked side vs our base case (+50bp, though our official call is +75bp). Soft retail sales aside US data trends near term should continue to pressure Fed odds higher, a strong read for March Fed Empire new orders signaling that the fever in manufacturing may be breaking and our US data surprise index still some distance from hitting peak levels.

    Two among three bearish signals for CAD this week give us a buy USD/CAD on dips signal. We leave an order to buy USD/CAD into 1.3170, with a stop at 1.3030. This could be it for USD/CAD's downleg since mid-Jan, neither CA-US 2yr bond spreads nor oil prices offering much confidence for sustained trade in USD/CAD sub-1.35. In fact 2yr bond spreads and oil prices both more fairly value USD/CAD nearer 1.38-1.40, substantially higher than current levels.
    Total return since inception: +9.82%."
    For more information, read our latest forex news.
     

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