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Market unduly harsh on China - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 10, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that while many observers are skeptical of China's GDP figures, they seem more willing to accept at face value other data such as inflation, trade, and reserves.

    Key Quotes:

    "The market may be unduly harsh on China. On one hand, a San Fran Fed Letter from March 2013 looked at a range of indicators and concluded that China's growth was probably not significantly different from the government estimated. On the other hand, calculating GDP is more difficult than generally appreciated.

    Take the US as an example. The quarterly GDP estimate is revised over several year, and it becomes less relevant the more time that passes. Look at Q1 14 GDP. The initial estimate was 0.1%. The first revision put it at -1.0%. The second revision put it at -2.9%.

    The latest revision appears to have put it at -0.9%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reviewed US GDP 2012-2014 and shaved $70 bln off US output, more than Luxembourg's annual GDP.

    A recent study of the 1994-2013 period found that while other countries tend to under-estimate their growth, the US typically over-estimated its. US revisions, though,m were larger than Canada and Spain, for example, but less than Finland, Japan, and Norway."
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