MAS easing suggest divergence story remains alive in EM - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 14, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Research Team at BBH, notes that the Monetary Authority of Singapore met and eased policy.

    Key Quotes

    “Consensus saw no move, though some (like us) saw an easing move. At its last meeting in October, the MAS eased policy slightly by reducing the slope of its S$NEER trading band. It did so again today by moving to a policy of no appreciation (zero slope for the S$NEER trading band). This setting for policy was last put into place in 2008 during the financial crisis, so policymakers are clearly concerned about the outlook now. Singapore also reported Q1 GDP flat q/q, as expected.

    The MAS move is a reminder that EM continues to struggle with slow growth. Besides some exceptions (South Africa but mostly Latin America), EM policymakers have a dovish bias. Even some in Latin America are expected to reverse course in the months ahead and cut rates. Coupled with expected Fed tightening, the divergence story remains alive in EM. Indeed, we do not think stronger currencies are desired by most in EM right now, though we of course downplay the “currency wars” meme that the press likes to push every now and then.”
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