Moody’s upgrades Argentina’s outlook after presidential election

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 24, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Córdoba) - The rating agency upgraded Argentina’s outlook for the second time in a month and is now at positive with a Caa1 grade. The move by Moody’s Investors Service follows Sunday’s presidential election. President-elect Mauricio Macri, from the opposition beat Daniel Scioli, from the official party. According to Moody’s, Macri is more likely to introduce credit positive policies, including a resolution of the holdouts creditors.

    Key Quotes:

    “The main driver of the outlook change to positive from stable is Moody's expectation that Argentina's policy stance will become more credit positive in the aftermath of Sunday's elections in which Mauricio Macri was elected Argentina's president for the 2015-19 term.”

    “A prompt resolution of the holdout saga is a key Macri pledge in this regard, and is required for the government to borrow abroad, which it will probably need to do in order to meet upcoming debt service obligations. Official reserves have fallen to below $22 billion, raising uncertainty about the government's ability to meet 2016 debt service obligations and adding pressure for a swift resolution with holdout creditors.”

    “In addition, we expect the new administration to devote efforts to improving the economic and institutional environment over the coming months, through a series of reforms aimed at tackling persistently high levels of inflation and lack of data accountability.”

    “The new government aims to install new central bank leadership, make inflation reduction a key policy goal, and legally establish central bank independence.”

    “The incoming administration has also promised to improve the reliability of official economic statistics which have increasingly diverged from private sector estimates since 2007. Macri has pledged to make the statistical institute fully independent."

    “Argentina's Caa1 rating balances the country's medium economic strength and moderate government debt metrics with ongoing institutional and financial weaknesses linked to the country's policy mix, political volatility, and limited funding options."

    "The decision to affirm, rather than raise, Argentina's ratings at this time reflects the uncertainty that remains around when Argentina might reach agreement with holdout creditors, and over how much fiscal and economic reform is likely to be achieved. The incoming administration lacks its own legislative majority but Cambiemos candidates won key posts across the country, and Argentina's president retains significant influence through its control of the country's national finances.”
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