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Muted market response to China’s GDP numbers – SocGen

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Oct 19, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that China's Q3 GDP report has failed to lift the clouds of uncertainty facing the outlook for global markets.

    Key Quotes

    “GDP growth slowed to 6.9% y/y from 7%, a tick better than the consensus expected, while industrial production growth slowed to 5.7% from 6.1%, and fixed investment slowed to 10.3% from10.9%. Only the retail sales figures, up to 10.9% from10.8% y/y, beat expectations.”

    “Nominal GDP growth slowed more, to 6.2% from 7.1%, and the overall feel of the data is that it was soft, but not surprisingly so. My colleague Wei Yao's description of China facing a ‘bumpy landing' rather than either a recovery of a hard landing, remains apt.”

    “So far, the market response in Asia has been muted. That simply reflects the underlying market mood which is to put money to work in Q4 on the grounds that there are no obvious clouds on the short-term investment horizon.”

    “The generally positive mood can last until either the PBoC allows the CNY to float a bit more freely (aka, sink a bit), or until we start to talk in earnest of Fed tightening again, or maybe until BOJ QQE at the end of the month fails to deliver the weaker yen and higher Nikkei that most seem to expect.”
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