The FX Research team at TD Securities expects the Polish central bank (NBP) to leave rates on hold at its meeting later this week. Key Quotes “In line with the almost unanimous consensus we expect the NBP to keep its policy rate on hold on Friday at 1.5%, in spite of inflation running at -0.7% Y/Y in January”. “However, according to the minutes of the February MPC meeting, the fact that inflation has been negative for longer than expected is seen as being “driven mainly by factors beyond the influence of domestic monetary policy,” i.e. principally low commodity prices”. “With the economy likely to continue growing at an above 3% rate this year and the recent recovery in commodity prices, there is little pressing need for the NBP to change rates”. “However, with the ECB expected to ease this Thursday, the possibility of the NBP cutting rates on Friday in response cannot be completely ruled out. However, we expect the NBP to wait until the April or possibly May meeting before cutting rates”. For more information, read our latest forex news.