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No time for a one-and-done FOMC - Scotiabank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 16, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Shaun Osborne Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank explained that we have no time for the idea of a “one and done” move by the Fed – there would be no point.

    Key Quotes:

    "Rather, the Fed will have to acknowledge that improving fundamentals no longer warrant emergency policy settings but stress that the tightening cycle will be slow and gradual and data dependent. Markets will focus on the dot plot (top chart) to see if policy makers stick with the pace of tightening anticipated previously (implying four rate increases over the balance of 2016); removing some of the 2016 tightening contained in previous dot plot forecasts could give the markets the “dovish hike” that many feel is the way forward for the Fed.

    If the dot plot sticks with four hikes, however, may be construed as relatively hawkish. We can expect heightened volatility in the markets after the decision and some profit-taking in the event the Fed sounds dovish but price action yesterday in particular suggests that market participants were not afraid of boosting USD long positions despite the event risk and we think broader USD losses are liable to remain limited. Tighter policy and relatively attractive fundamentals should still be supportive for the USD in the medium term."
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