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NZ jobs preview - what to expect in NZD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 2, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD awaits the key jobs data for Q4 today in early Asia's morning.

    The data is key and will be a high priority component to the RBNZ's assessment of the economy when meeting next to discuss its monetary policy where a large percentage of the market is on the fence as to whether the RBNZ will act and cut interest rates for a fifth time since the start of last year where the Central Bank cut four times by 25bps each time in 2015 to 2.50%.

    The Employment Change, RNZ and NZD/USD

    The Employment Change in New Zealand is reported by the Statistics New Zealand and is key component to the RBNZ's decision making process on the OCR.

    The RBNZ last met on the 28th January and made no changes, but were certainly taking up more of a dovish stance and should the jobs data disappoint, it will add further evidence that the New Zealand economy is in need of further stimulus and will increase the likelihood of a rate cut this year.

    Employment in New Zealand decreased by -0.40 in the third quarter of 2015 and was the first time it had fallen below zero as far back as the middle of 2012. Just for some back ground, the employment change in New Zealand averaged 0.33 percent from 1986 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 1.70 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004 and a record low of -1.70 percent in the first quarter of 2009. Markets are expecting an increase to 0.8% for 2015 Q4.

    Further impetus for NZD/USD today

    Today, we will also have RBNZ Gov speaking on ‘The Global Economy, New Zealand's Economic Outlook, and the Policy Targets Agreement' for some additional support to trading today.

    Looking ahead, NZD/USD forecast

    Analysts at Westpac offered a 3 month and 1 year outlook:

    "We expect NZD/USD to remain under downward pressure during the next few months, targeting 0.62. Our main argument is that the Fed should raise US interest rates further this year but markets have priced little in. We expect US data is to start surprising positively during the next few months, pushing US interest rates higher. In contrast, the RBNZ should ease twice this year, but markets have priced in only once.1 year: Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut by another 50bp to 2.0%, but the Fed rate to rise by 100bp to 1.375%."

    NZD/USD in a bullish reversal

    NZD/USD has been been technically bullish of late although the fundamentals do not support a continuation of a recovery while the upside has made a near 40% recovery in a reversal of the late December high of 0.6883 that bottomed at 0.6347 on the 25th January. 0.6558 has been the recent high scored on 31st January recovering 211 points of the 536 lost at the end of last years business.

    Key levels to monitor in NZD/USD

    The 100 dma is located at 0.6591 while the 20 dma is located at 0.6498. The pivot is located at 0.6518 as a key upside target ahead of R1 at 0.6588, R2 at 0.6627 and R3 at 0.6697.

    To the downside, below the market at time of writing that is 0.6480 spot, S1 is located at 0.6479, S2 at 0.6409 and S3 at 0.6370. RSI on the daily sticks is in neutral at 48 offering a neutral outlook with the price recently sold off from recent highs of 0.6553 on the back of risk-off markets and, "NZD/USD edges lower after Fonterra's dairy auction".
    For more information, read our latest forex news.
     

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