NZ retails sales preview - what to expect in NZD/USD?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    NZD/USD is consolidated at the cluster of MA's on the hourly time frames as we await the key retails sales data for today.

    NZD/USD has been a volatile pair this year so far, with fears that the RBNZ will need to act to curb the deflationary pressures and headwinds from overseas, while at the same time, investors are extra cautious given the turmoil at the open of 2016 and the rout in stocks and a glut in commodities with sharp drop in prices. The greenback doesn't know whether its coming or going either, and the Fed's outlook for the US economy is equally unassured, exposing the US dollar to bouts of supply.

    New Zealand retails sales

    In the past year, New Zealand retail sales had been growing positively overall, but that was while the economy had been improving and recovering as employment levels rose and inflation was kept in check and consumers were buying local. However, the risk is that consumers that are nervous are allured to the wider ranges and cheaper products in overseas internet retailing. for today, expectations are 1.4% Q/Q Q4 and 1.1% ex autos for the same period. This is lower than previous 1.0% es autos and 1.6% respectively.

    Key levels to monitor in NZD/USD

    NZD/USD had a go through the 200 sma on the hourly sticks, but the 200 dma is a string resistance capping any follow through at 0.6680 today. For today so far, the high has been 0.6676. On a poor number, the greenback should gather pace vs the bird and the price should break below the cluster of ma's on the hourly sticks targeting 0.6620 on the downside and 0.6609 being the recent low. S1 is at 0.6558 and S3 at 0.6525.
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