NZD –Top performer in Asia, UK CPI, German ZEW – Up next

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 15, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Antipodean currencies extended their upbeat momentum into a second day this session, with the Kiwi emerging the best performer across the FX board. While the USD/JPY pair slipped back below 121 handle on the back of a broadly lower US dollar.

    Key headlines in Asia

    RBA minutes: Talks up the economy, but maintains scope for further easing

    Dairy farmers under significant cash flow pressure – RBNZ

    Dominating themes in Asia - centered on JPY, AUD, NZD

    A quiet Asian session, with nothing relevant in terms of economic news reported, except for the RBA minutes. The RBA minutes left doors open for further easing on the back of lower inflation outlook, although was largely viewed as turning out to be optimistic on the Aus economic outlook. The AUD/USD pair extended its solid rebound from 0.7160 levels and trades almost 1 big figure higher near 0.7260 on the back of minor-rebound seen in oil and gold prices. Further, upbeat Chinese dataflow released over the weekend also continues to underpin the Aussie.

    While its OZ neighbour, NZD/USD emerged the top gainer in Asia and tests 0.68 barrier (seven-week highs) on expectations of another bounce in whole-milk powder at the Fonterra’s dairy auction later today. Moreover, New Zealand’s growth numbers, with markets expecting a 0.8% expansion, building on June-quarter growth of 0.4%, also keeps the NZD underpinned.

    On the other hand, USD/JPY halted its recovery from 120.35 lows near 121.18 levels and retreated lower around 121 handle, amid no major catalyst behind the move besides the extension of broad based US dollar weakness. The US dollar index, which measures the relative strength of the greenback against its six major peers, drops -0.25% to fresh session lows of 97.50.

    On the equities space, Asian indices trade cautious ahead of the Fed’s 2-day policy meeting that commences later today. Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei extends losses and drops -1.17% to 18,659 while Australia’s S&P ASX index trades modestly flat at 4,932. The mainland China’s benchmark, the Shanghai Composite trades muted around 3,523, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gains 0.22% to 21,355.

    Heading towards Europe & North America

    There is a lot in store in the EUR calendar ahead, which is likely to keep the EUR, GBP traders busy today. The first-tier release in the UK’s CPI data will kick-off the European session, followed by German ZEW surveys while the BOE will publish its Quarterly Bulletin later in the day.

    The UK CPI in November is seen at -0.1%, compared to 0.1% reported a month ago, while the annual price growth is predicted to be flat, following the negative 0.1% figure reported in October.

    Separately, the ZEW will release its Economic Sentiment Index for the next six months for Germany, as well as the Current Situation Index, reflecting institutional investors' opinions. Economic sentiment is seen heading higher to 15.0 in December from 10.4 measured in November, while the Current Situation Index is expected to trend down to 54.1 from 54.4 in the previous month.

    Looking ahead, we have plenty of risk events in the North American session, with the US CPI data likely to be the main highlight for today. While Canada’s manufacturing sales report will be published followed by NZ Fonterra’s dairy prices auction results. Besides, the BOC Chief Poloz is scheduled to hold a press conference about the Financial System Review, in Ottawa.

    EUR/USD Technicals

    Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, “Short term, the 1 hour chart presents a positive tone, as the technical indicators stand above their mid-lines, albeit lacking directional strength. In the 4 hours chart, the pair managed to advance beyond a bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have lost their upward strength in positive territory. More relevant, the pair is now above the 50% retracement of the October high/December low decline at 1.1000, an immediate short term support for the upcoming hours. Support levels: 1.1000 1.0950 1.0910, Resistance levels: 1.1045 1.1080 1.1120.”

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