NZD: RBNZ forecast growth to increase to 3% - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 3, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, notes that the RBNZ Gov speech suggests that on the economic outlook, the RBNZ expects forecast growth to increase to 3%, but acknowledges the risks to the NZ economy are to the downside, in particular, the difficult external environment and weak commodity prices.

    Key Quotes

    “As for the PTA, the Gov went to some length to justify why the Bank is looking at core inflation and why following the PTA in a mechanistic manner is not appropriate this time (due to oil) implying a rate cut is not likely soon.

    Q4 Employment data was very strong, employment rising +0.9%/qtr (TD +1.3%, mkt +0.8%) with the expected bounce in part-time (+2.5%) after the mysterious crash of Sep qtr (-3.8%). Full-time solid at +0.6% to be +2.0%/yr. The unemployment rate crashed from 6+% to 5.3%, but there are no fears that this will feed into inflation, as strong net migration is boosting employment without lifting wages. A good result all round.

    Overnight milk prices fell for the 3rd straight auction, the index dropping 7.4% with whole milk powder dropping more than 10%. The March qtr tends to be the low point for auction volume, so the dairy price may not have hot a floor yet.”
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