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NZD/USD: 2016 reversal losing momentum

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 8, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    New Zealand is closed for Waitangi Day on the same week that China, HK and Singapore are out.

    Waitangi Day is a public holiday held on 6th February every year to commemorate the signing of New Zealand's founding document - the Treaty of Waitangi, in 1840. China is closed for a whole week with Chinese new year and this year is the year of the monkey. If anything is to be explained for the monkey business so far this year, China has certainly been the main culprit thus far.

    Meanwhile, for New Zealand, it is doubtful that it will be the year of the bird. The Kiwi has started to make a full reversal of the 2016 downtrend thus far, but there are far from any fundamentals that will encourage further demand directly form the New Zealand economy. The main threats to the economy are, oil, inflation, China, the whether and a weak commodity back drop.

    "On top of possible structural forces playing a role–recent NZD strength and oil price weakness will further dampen tradables inflation and delay the return of headline inflation to the RBNZ's target band". The week ahead is quiet for NZ releases on the calendar apart form electronic card retails sales," explained analysts at ANZ.

    NZD/USD levels

    NZD/USD was in overbought territory on the short term RSI's, while the price recovers in a continuation of the reversal in 2016. However, the cross remains better offered below the 0.6666 pivot and 0.6866 as the start of the 2016 downtrend. The 1hr 20 sma at 0.6617 comes in as first support ahead of a deeper retracement to 0.6550 200 sma supporting territory on the same time frame.
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