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NZD/USD: a bullish reversal within stronger bear trend

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 28, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD has consolidated after striking a bullish score on the 0.65 handle overnight with highs of 0.6513.

    Supply took back control and had the bird down to 0.6454 before it was able to stabilize into the sideways drift where the pair changes hands in during early Asia.

    Data wise, the highlight was the US durable goods missing in a big way and putting the greenback under scrutiny, coupled with the dovish FOMC this week.
    GDP Q4 next main event for NZD/USD, and can be watched live here with FXStreet

    GDP Q4 will now be the next main event and has been exposed somewhat by the poor durable goods orders. Meanwhile from New Zealand, building permits were strong and the highest since 2004. They arrived 2.3% m/m vs prior of +1.8%.

    NZD/USD levels

    NZD/USD looks bearish in its questionable 35% reversal of the 2016 downtrend. The price remains suffocated by the daily ma's while the 20 dma caps further recovery attempts.

    The 100 sma on the same daily time frame is at 0.6586 today and is at a key level where the support of July-late August 2015 held. Until the price can penetrate there the bias remains to the downside.

    A break of 0.6420 opens 0.6350 and 19th Jan lows a few pips beyond., guarding a resumption of the 2016 downtrend towards September support line of 0.6235 with a target at 0.6200 the figure to meet August 2015 low of 0.6195. This will be an extension of the July 2014 bear trend from above 0.8800.
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