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NZD/USD: bird could keep flight trajectory on dollar weakness

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 17, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    NZD/USD has been on the bid and dragged along with a sell-off in the greenback post Yellen's cautionary tones and the FOMC statement's language converging with the general concerns about global growth.

    The FOMC yesterday was surprisingly dovish, in respect to the bullish tones of 2015 and the hawkishness in the dot plot that signalled at least 4 hikes in 2016. We are now looking at just two and perhaps none at all if global conditions deteriorate.

    Brent oil nears last week high on USD selling (note, WTI recently capped at $40.10)

    Gold strengthens on USD weakness

    Silver clocks 5-1/2 month high

    Not surprisingly, the commodities and sector's currencies are rallying on dollar weakness, but considering the major concerns that are attached to the glut in oil and general supply in commodities where demand is stagnant and remains at 10 year lows, perhaps the moves are going against the curve? (Even Yellen's presser was cautioning on this theme and hence the pull back in the dot plot). At the same time, the Aussie jobs report was not exactly conducive to a rally in the antipodeans, but AUD/USD broke the 0.76 handle all the same.

    Australian Feb employment report: Total jobs disappoint, full time bright spot

    NZD/USD levels

    No one wants to offer an explanation to the huge rally in the antipodeans, but one thing we do know is that markets like to test and push the barriers, and a big level like 0.76 in the Aussie when breached tempts fate, triggering stops and sending ricochets over to the Kiwi, supported on dollar weakness. The Aussie topped out at 0.7651 and a pip or two above the key 16th June lows at 0.7645. Subsequently, the Kiwi reached 0.6851 the high and above R2 at 0.6848. Are the bulls quite done yet? Perhaps not...

    NZD/USD could run to recent highs of 0.6880

    R3 is located at 0.6953 while RSI still has room to go on the upside suggested on the daily sticks at 53. A better bid tone is felt while above 0.6680 and the classic pivot of 0.6682 and 0.6880 could be regarded as possible given recent 28th Dec highs and 14th Oct 0.6897 high. However, for the time being, RSI (14) on the hourly sticks point to some consolidation and a fade while in overbought territory at 77 with a pull back to the 0.6800 level with potential support from the 20 sma on the 1hr sticks at 0.6794.
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