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NZD/USD: capped and reversing the recovery

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD struggles to recover with conviction, drawn back by the 200 sma on the hourly chart and capped at last week's 0.6560 and unable to recover much further through 0.6520 on additional attempts. The week kicked off in Asia with a risk-off mood across the board while for the bird specifically, we have the RBNZ to plan ahead for.

    2016 has come about with a quick flight to safety considering the uncertainties that lie ahead. So far, it has all been about China and oil with the Central Banks sidelined for the most part, but this week will deliver both the FOMC and RBNZ. "We do not expect fresh action from any, but we concede that a rate cut by the central bank of New Zealand would be the least surprising. It is already in an easing mode," warned analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman. "

    Last week, a 0.5% q/q decline in New Zealand's Q4 CPI was reported. It was twice the decline that market expected and brought the year-over-year rate to 0.1% from 0.4% in Q3. Falling milk prices are an additional headwind. We suspect officials prefer to avoid policy changes given market conditions, and the 6.5% decline of the New Zealand dollar on a trade-weighted basis since the start of the year buys some time."

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, NZD/USD has been capped after it recently broke the descending resistance with its sharp move out of the consolidation phase below 0.6380. This was a reversal that took place against the strong 2016 downtrend from above 0.6880. It has near term support from the 100 sma on the 1hr sticks at 0.6460 and a break below exposes 0.6410 ahead of 0.6350.
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