NZD/USD: capped on higher oil inventories

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 26, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD has been capped on the bid and is falling just shy of the 0.65 handle as commodity prices settle back a tad with plenty of supply of oil on the market, confirmed by the API crude oil inventories that have moved to 11.4m bbls in support this week.

    Otherwise, oil had made a strong comeback in the US shift and propelled stocks high that had a better session on better earnings also on Wall Street. The bird is moving in tandem with this ahead of the RBNZ and trade balance tomorrow. While it is not expected that the RBNZ will act this meeting around, having already cut by 100 bps last year in 4 of the meetings, they are widely expected to cut the OCR at some stage given the current climate and worsening outlook.

    Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac explained more on this here and said that they expect the RBNZ to keep the OCR on hold at 2.50% at Thursday's OCR Review, but to shift from a conditional easing bias to an unconditional one. NZ swap rates and the NZD should fall slightly in response.

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, NZD/USD has been capped ahead of the descending 1200 sma on the 4hr sticks at 0.6522 with a high of 0.6511 leaving a bearish bias for the session ahead, especially while below the pivot of 0.6506. The bird has corrected the downtrend in a minor recovery, but that has run out of steam ahead of the RBNZ. The pivot is aty 0.6486 guarding S2 at 0.6412 with RSI in neutral.
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