NZD/USD: China and RBNZ risks to the downside

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is better offered while trying to fend off the supply at 0.6520 support currently.

    However, this territory is looking fragile ahead of S3 at 0.6503. The markets are in heavy risk-off mode again at the start of the week. USD/JPY is again losing traction fast with an early offer taking out the 117 handle and bringing in the August lows of 116.07 into sight as next key target, underpinning the market's concerns and the flight to safety away from the antipodeans as bets start to mount that bother the RBA and RBNZ's hands will be forced to cut interest rates again, sooner than later.

    RBNZ watch

    For the RBNZ, that would mean a continuation of the eight reviews from last year and subsequent full 1 point cut over the 4 rate cuts of 25bps. As it stands, the OCR is at 2.50% and the lowest it has been since it was introduced in March 1999 at 4.50%. Jan 28th, March 10th and April 28th are in the firing line for a possible rate cut.

    NZD/USD levels

    China continues to be of concern and the recovery from Nov business and 0.6428 lows is underattack in full effect, already with circa 90% of the move compromised in heavy selling from above 0.6870 to current lows of 0.6510. 0.6570 is a potential resistance at the 100 SMA on the daily chart.
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