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NZD/USD downside bias below 100 DMA

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 26, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6572 with a high of 0.6597 and a low of 0.6562.

    NZD/USD is consolidated around the 100 DMA still in a phase of consolidation as we head towards the end of year's business with the RBNZ expected to cut interest rates while the Fed have been sighted as starting to return to a normalisation of their interest rate policy for the first time in the last decade. The greenback is supported under such divergence of the two Central Banks while the bird is exposed to a commodity sector that is dying a slow death in the Chinese slowdown.

    NZD/USD: New Zealand data and commodity prices

    Imre Speizer, Strategist at Westpac explained that the NZ event calendar next week remains of a second-tier nature, although it will shed more light on the commodity and housing outlooks. "The GDT dairy auction on Tue will be closely watched because whole milk powder futures are currently predicting a rebound of 10%+ magnitude, probably in response to increasing focus on the prospect of drought this summer. Economic data includes building permits and business confidence (Mon), Q3 terms of trade and QV house prices (Tue, and worth watching as further evidence of an Auckland slowdown)), and Q3 building work done (Thu). "

    NZD/USD bearish bias

    Technically, price has moved above the declining 20 DMA that is at 0.6567 today which was otherwise capping the minor rebound, although momentum is weak and the upside lacks conviction in thin trade without much in the way of demand in the greenback. Should the price get back below the 100 DMA for any sustained period, the outlook shifts back into negative and targets 0.6220 over the medium term. Shorter term, 23rd Nov lows at 0.6493 guards the September/October channel.

    Meanwhile, Imre Speizer, Strategist at Westpac, expects the Kiwi dollar to depreciate towards the 0.62 handle vs. the greenback in the next periods.
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