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NZD/USD downside exposed below 1hr 200 sma

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 31, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD has started out in early Asia on the downside after penetrating the 200 sma on the hourly chart already at 0.6468 with spot having made a low of 0.6459 so far.

    NZD/USD started out on the wrong foot this year, dropping from 0.6867 and has recorded a low of 0.6347 on the 19th January so far. The price moved in a correction to a high of 0.6559 but the upside has started to run out of steam and is currently suppressed by the 20 dma at 0.6505 today.

    Fundamentally, New Zealand's economy is tanking while the bird is soured by milk prices and another likely rate cut to from the RBNZ. The RBNZ cut rates four times last year and some analysts sight the OCR being cut down to 2.0% by the end of 2016 from the current 2.50% today while such headwinds as falling oil prices and a weaker global growth outlook prolong a period of low inflation. The week ahead gives a fair bit to play for in the bird.

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, NZD/USD is trading with a bearish bias and should 0.6460 give way to expose 0.6420, if penetrated, the move leaves 0.6350 and 19th Jan lows a few pips beyond wide open. The September support line of 0.6235 and 0.6200 the figure could be strong support in the vicinity of August 2015 low of 0.6195 in an extension of the July 2014 bear trend from above 0.8800.
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