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NZD/USD: headed towards 100 1hr sma?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 21, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    NZD/USD is currently following suit on the tail coats of the Aussie in a recovery in the commodities sector.

    NZD/USD made a higher high in March, breaking the daily resistance of last month's cluster of lower highs around the 0.6800 level. This month has seen plenty of short covering in the commodities sector, and particular focus, despite in oil, has been in the metals sector and a decent rise in iron ore while bulls took the price higher by 2.5% on Friday to $57.50/tonne.

    However, as analysts at Westpac noted, "Iron ore has now followed 6 days of decline with 3 of gains though remains well short of the $63.74 high of 7 March." Particular for the bird, Fonterra continues to reduced its farmgate milk prices and did so for the 15/16 season from NZ$4.15/kgMS to NZ$3.90, to a 9yr low. This is a supporting factor for the RBNZ who recently surprised markets with a rate cut.

    Data today showed that visitor arrivals fell by -1.6% in February after a 2.7% rise in January and net migration for February came in at 6070 vs 6130 in January. Before that, the Q1 Westpac consumer confidence fell to 109.6 from 110.7 in the fourth quarter in 2015.

    A quiet day now ahead, we await Richmond Fed president Lacker (hawk) speaking on inflation and also, Atlanta Fed's Lockhart (centrist) on the US economy. The US data calendar is low key, with Feb existing home sales seen down about 3% m/m.

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, the price is stabilizing around the 11th March high and support level that meets the series of highs on the 1hr candles around the 16th March's rally. A phase of consolidation might be expected with RSI (14) back to neutral in the same 1hr time frame, but below 50 at 40.12 signifying a bearish bias towards 30 with price below the pivot of 0.6819. S2 is located at 0.6726 just above the 100 sma in the 1hr sticks.
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