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NZD/USD: lack of Fed hike prospects to stall bird's decline?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 20, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD has caught a bid and scored a higher high through the consolidative channel that developed on the downside after a sell-off that occurred after yesterday's CPI data from New Zealand in the early hours of yesterday's Asian shift. Today, it is different near term outlook with US CPI for Dec disappointing.

    The CPI's Q4 missed expectations, and while we have known that the potential for the New Zealand economy was limited, it is early on in the year that we are finding out the RBNZ's inflation target is unachievable at the current pace of the economy and subsequent effects on inflation. CPI Q4 arrived at 0.15 vs 0.4% year on year and -0.5% vs -0.2% Q/Q.

    Today, from the US, however, CPI in Dec did not impress the hawks in respect of looking for the Fed to hike within H1 again and could limit the downside in NZD in the immediate future. Analyst at ING Bank, Rob Carnell, noted that the US CPI for December fell 0.1% mom vs a consensus 0.0%mom expectation and explained in detail here.

    Its not just about the Fed but the RBNZ

    However, regardless of whether the Fed will cut H1 or H2, analysts are putting more weight on the RBNZ in respect of determining the birds fate for this year ahead. "The US labour market is looking strong and that should eventually result in wage inflation, in turn causing the Fed to tighten further. In contrast, the RBNZ should retain its easing bias, and markets will increasingly price in further rate cuts in 2016. In addition, low oil prices will act as a headwind for NZ dairy product prices, and thus the NZD," explained Imre Speizer who added, "Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut by another 50bp to 2.0%, but the Fed rate to rise by 100bp to 1.375%."

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, the 20 sma on the hourly stick has come under pressure as the price is making a slow recovery from 0.6347 post Q4 CPI data lows. This might be a strong initial level of resistance as it was an area of stability when the price had been declining in the bearish trend that commenced from 0.6860. On a follow through, look out for an approach to the 0.65 handle where the 50 sma on the same time frame that resides at 0.6484 currently. Failures in the upside will undoubtedly expose further downside, targeting September lows of 0.6236 with a break of S3 at 0.6419 and the 0.63 handle.
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