NZD/USD makikng hard work of 200 DMA

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 3, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is another major commodity pair that remains robust, despite weak oil.

    However, as markets return along with full liquidity, the recovery in the bird may struggle and especially if investor's sentiments go pro US assets to start the year while else where remains highly fragile. We have the FOMC minutes and Nonfarm payrolls as main events while the GDT price index with kick things off in respect of the conditions of New Zealand's major export. Chinese data may also have an impact and today brings the Caixin manufacturing PMI for Dec against the back-drop of NBS manufacturing beating previous, but still below 50 at 49.7 vs 49.6 prior. That data also missed expectations so could weigh on the bird to start the week. Non-manufacturing PMI for the same month arrived 54.4 vs 53.6, a small plus as China seeks to balance the economy.

    In respect of the bird's performance in 2015 and the RBNZ's most recent outlook,

    NZD/USD: 10 cents down for 2015, RBNZ's outlook summarized
    is worth a read.

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, NZD/USD has been capped at the declining 200 DMA at 0.6838 within the downtrend of 0.76. A break of the psychological 0.70 handle remains a key objective to close the gap at 0.7107. A reversal looks in at the 20 DMA at 0.6766 below S3 at 0.6791. We are below the picot of 0.6836 and risks are mounted to the downside until a recovery through R3 at 0.6859 on the short term sticks.
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