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NZD/USD: now all about the RBNZ

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Mar 8, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    NZD/USD is all about the RBNZ and commodity prices. Oil has been a dominate factor, while Fonterrra marked down their forecasts yet again for dairy prices.

    Iron ore has been one hell of a ride to the upside, 16% in a day, on Monday, but has largely held on the record-breaking gains it made yesterday easing marginally to $US63.63 a tonne and other metals are buoyed subsequently.

    In respect of the RBNZ:

    Analysts at Westpac offered the projected outcomes as follows;"(a) a dovish surprise, which would be the delivery of a 25bp OCR reduction to 2.25%. While we expect the next rate cut to be in June, we regard March as live and assign a 30% chance to this scenario. The 2yr would fall by 19bp, NZD/USD by 2c.

    (b) a hawkish surprise, which would retain the tone of January's press release - namely that further easing is possible (but not probable). We see a 10% chance of this outcome, which would push the 2yr 15bp higher and NZD/USD 1.5c higher."

    NZD/USD levels


    The recently broke out of the 0.6550-0.6750 range and met highs of 0.6817 after the nonfarm payrolls and the USD sell-off. The resistance here is string and the price has been forced back below the 4hr 20 sma at 0.6770.

    NZD/USD bulls are looking for a score towards the 2015 Dec highs and onto the 0.68 handle so long as 0.6720 holds ahaed of the 50 sma on the 4hr at 0.6695. The 100 sma at 0.6743 and mid-way point on the 0.67 handle could be a near term support on further draw backs in the recovery.
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