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NZD/USD: now below the key 4hr 200 SMA

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 5, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6591 with a high of 0.6599 and a low of 0.6589.

    NZD/USD is consolidated in the Asian session, following on from the minor recovery of the lows overnight at 0.6573. There is a clear bearish trend that has developed again with 0.6780's downtrend steep and convincing below the cluster of MA's and significantly with the 200 SMA on the hourly chart now at 0.6724 and descending with price accelerating below the 20 SMA on the same time frames.

    Fundamentally, NZ's economy is not performing, dairy prices are down and the divergence between the RBNZ and Fed is compelling. The Fed is in the verge of a rate hike and markets are getting excited on positive data releases and hawkish Fed chat. Today Yellen expressed Dec as an appropriate time for a rate hike and Dudley backed her up in a press conference in early Asia.

    However, as expressed earlier in the US session, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet wrote, "Still, there are no guarantees the FED will act before the year end, and regardless market's beliefs, the Nonfarm Payroll report can be a double edge knife, with more chances of denying the move than confirming it." ... And here is why...

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, the downside is consolidated as we head into a quiet looking Asian session ahead of a busy end to the week with Nonfarm Payrolls around the corner. However, 0.6650 resistance should play its roll on any bullish attempts but now below the 200 SMA on the 4hr is at 0.6610, the bearish trend is likely to gather pace on a catalyst ahead of a breakout to 0.6515 and the 55 DMA.
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