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NZD/USD: toppy here after RBNZ rally?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Dec 10, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD traders who were short going into the RBNZ may have been bitten now and twice shy after the ECB fiasco last week. The RBNZ cut rates yet the bird took off and has stayed up on its perch on the basis that the RBNZ, albeit within a mixed statement, said that that rates will stay firm.

    This was on the basis that they are confident that their inflation target will be met while domestically there are still some positive stories in the economy and the outlook is cautiously bullish. Commodities have also somewhat stabilized in the last couple of days, for now, offering a relief to the antipodeans for the time being.

    However, Lee Hardman, analyst at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi has a broader outlook as far as commodities go and explained that, overall, the supportive domestic developments in both Australia and New Zealand have increased upside risks to our Australian and New Zealand forecasts although with commodity prices still declining we remain comfortable to maintain a bearish outlook for now.

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, the upside has been taken but momentum is weakening and RSI (14) has come back a bit at 65.80 on the 4hr chart currently. The 20 SMA is at 0.6745 on the hourly time frame offering immediate support from a distance from spot at 0.6766. The key target would be the 200 DMA at 0.6887 and October highs of 0.6897. Downside risks through the 20 DMA at 0.6593 and the cluster of key MA's could be pivotal where the price bounced from post RBNZ. The 100 DMA is located at 0.6547.
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