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NZD/USD: watch commodities, China and US events

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 29, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6531 with a high of 0.6544 and a low of 0.6524.

    NZD/USD is trading in a broadly bearish trend although at the start of the Asian session, the outlook was a little brighter for the bird with the October building permits +5.1% m/m vs the prior -5.7% and arrived at the highest level since July 2004 after two consecutive months of decline.

    However, with the market fixated on the forthcoming week in US data and events while expectations are for a Fed hike to come of the FOMC meeting, the greenback prevails at the top spot and it will take 'something' to carve out a change in direction in the price. China is a real threat this week and it is alsoa big week for commodities and with the bird hinged to the sector, kiwi trader's eyes will be on the OPEC meeting and the GDT price index later in the week. As noted by analysts at ANZ, the NZ milk powder futures fell on Friday as the market reacted negatively to NZ October milk production falling less than expected – down 2.7% y/y.

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, price is pressured by the declining 20 DMA that is at 0.6544 today. Momentum to the downside picked up towards the end of last week and the price dropped below the 200 SMA on the hourly chart and the 100 DMA at 0.6538 today. A continuation on the downside opens up 0.6220 23rd August and daily lows over the medium term. Shorter term, 23rd Nov lows at 0.6493 guards the September/October channel.
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