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NZD/USD's 2016's reversal due a correction?

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 3, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD reached a high of 0.6674 in a short squeeze as the US dollar collapsed with the dollar index having its second worst week since 2011.

    There is no full explanation for the sell-off, but a combination of triggers including a bounce in oil through $32, poor ISM data with non-manufacturing PMI falling to 53.5 from December's 55.3 and a cascade of stops triggered.

    We have a quiet spell in terms of events that are scheduled for New Zealand before the main event of the week in nonfarm payrolls. "We remain comfortable with our call for Friday's report to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 185k and private payrolls added 180k jobs," explained Nomura in their review of today's healthy ADP report in the US.

    US ADP jobs healthy; review - Nomura


    NZ jobs: Huge surprise, looks exaggerated - ANZ

    Casting minds back a few sessions, according to Philip Borkin, senior economist at ANZ, the NZ employment report, while looking exaggeratedly good, should reduce the odds of an OCR cut by the RBNZ in the near-term.

    NZD/USD a sell on 2016's reversal?

    NZD/USD is overbought and could be due a correction in a continuation of the downtrend below the 200 dma at 0.6717, while analysts at Westpac, on a three-month view are looking for 0.6200.

    "We expect NZD/USD to remain under downward pressure during the next few months, targeting 0.62. Our main argument is that the Fed should raise US interest rates further this year but markets have priced little in. We expect US data is to start surprising positively during the next few months, pushing US interest rates higher. In contrast, the RBNZ should ease twice this year, but markets have priced in only once."

    NZD/USD levels

    NZD/USD penetrated the 100 and 50 dma at 0.6597 and 0.6630 respectively with a high of 0.6697 and 20 pips off the 200 dma at 0.6717. The price is overbought at 75 on RSI (14).


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