NZD/USD's downside bias for Asia

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 25, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
    Likes Received:
    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is currently dropping away to the downside in early Asia as markets continue to trade cautiously, albeit in the absence of anything concrete in respect of events. We are in thin trade with Australia out and we will await the open of Tokyo and China before the possibility of a catalyst one way or another.

    NZD/USD awaits the RBNZ and FOMC

    This week is much more about the Central Banks on the horizon with both the RBNZ and FOMC coming up. Neither are expected to act, but there is always the possibility that the RBNZ will cut rates, but given they have already cut 4 times last year 100bps in total, they may prefer to wait and see the effects of that action first and we only had the last cut in December.

    The FOMC on the the hand is live but even less likely to act so soon. The statement will be scrutinized for possibility of mention that Global risk factors are preventing them from hiking and a dovish rhetoric could propel the bird higher.

    NZD/USD levels

    NZD/USD has drifted below the 0.6461 and the 200 sma on the hourly sticks as well as the 100 sma on the 4hr chart at 0.6539 leaving a bearish bias for the session ahead, especially while below the pivot of 0.6506. The bird has made a reversal of the recovery in the 2016 downtrend from above 0.6880. However RSI is in neutral/oversold territory just above 37 on the hourly and signals a potential phase of consolidation ahead of S2 at 0.6412.
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