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NZD/USD's load down and all about the 1hr 200 sma

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 21, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is duplicating the ebbs and flows of the Aussie as we lack the kind of drivers seen at the start of the year and a level of stability is coming back into Asian markets with the yuan fix, for example, relatively neutral for the last number of sessions last week and this week.

    The equities are driven on commodities, specifically oil and risk appetite is focused there also in the absence of data from China at the moment. The Nikkei closed down -2.43% at 16,017.26 at the lows while Shanghai was up 0.5%.

    PBoC changing tactics?

    The Chinese however had the PBoC injecting 400bn yuan overnight which was the big news, its biggest OMO injection in three years and this might mean that they are moving away from simply cutting the deposit rate, unless of course they are going to be that drastic and combine the two easing measures to effect a recovery - we will have to see.

    Fonterra's concerns about oil prices and China

    In other news, dairy farmers are concerned that Fonterra's CEO might action cuts to its farmer payouts should the GlobalDairyTrade index continue to drop. The CEO suggested that lower oil and continued equity turmoil in China (while Shanghai Composite Index has already dropped about 15 percent this year amid concerns about the economic outlook) may curb shirt-term dairy demand while prices are already at 12 year lows. Not very NZD/USD positive.

    NZD/USD levels

    Technically, as mentioned, the price action is mirroring the Aussie and similarly, the 200 sma on the hourly chart is a resistance that is once again, for a third time this week is coming under pressure at time of writing.

    The declining MA is residing at 0.6475 with spot market high of 0.6477 so far,. Spot trades 0.6558 at time of writing on the bid. However, the bearish phase is still healthy and the 0.6380 is critical on the downside.
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