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Oil prices take a beating as no agreement at Doha - Rabobank

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Apr 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Research Team at Rabobank, suggests that in the major event over the weekend was meeting of major oil producers in Doha wherein no agreement could be reached with the major stumbling block appearing to be Saudi Arabia’s unwillingness to put a plan in place unless Iran was part of it (Iran was not present at the meeting).

    Key Quotes

    “The next OPEC meeting is not scheduled to take place until 2nd June. The failure to agree has seen oil fall considerably, with the first Brent crude future down 5.0% at the timer of writing (perhaps acting as a slight brake on a further slide will be the chunky reduction in Kuwaiti production due to industrial action in the country). As a result of this failure, equities were down across the board in the Asian session with the Nikkei (-3.40%), Hang Seng (-1.34%) and Shangai Comp (-1.36%) all down. Peripherals are also under slight pressure this morning, with this fitting with our thinking that they are now trading as risk assets.

    Our bigger picture view on the oil topic is that the expectation of a supply-driven rise in oil prices should not have been seen as a positive for demand/ risk appetite (apart from oil producers it should in fact hinder future output). Indeed trading higher oil as a positive was likely just as misplaced as the previous reasoning (during the pronounced drop in oil prices that began in H2 2014) that the falling cost of oil was also a positive for risky assets. We argued that falling oil prices would not be growth supportive if it was softer demand (i.e. EM/ China slowdown) that was informing the decline.

    Going forward our view remains that a convincing recovery in global growth/ inflation will prove elusive and that central bank stimulus is in fact stymieing such a recovery. With this in mind, we continue to favour a bullish flattening of core curves.”
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