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Oil rebounds as dollar falls & speculation over an emergency OPEC meeting rises

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 4, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet - Oil prices ultimately sees a rebound. It rose sharply today in the Asian hours, after recording large gains from the previous sessions. The oil price rise is the result of a drop in the dollar index which is noted to have hit a seven-week low and also on uncomfirmed reports doing rounds that there could be discussion soon on oil production cut.

    The U.S. currency dropped 0.2 percent today against a basket of other currencies on weak US data as well as an indication given by New York Fed President William Dudleythat subsequent rate hikes will be further delayed. The dollar had hit its 14-week low against the euro yesterday. It was also at its weakest for a wee k against the Japanese yen.

    U.S. WTI light sweet crude prices rose 1.1 percent at $32.63 a barrel and Brent crude was up 0.8 percent at $35.32 a barrel around noon in Asia. In the previous sessions WTI ended 8 percent higher while Brent had ended 7 percent higher.

    Oil price also received a boost from speculation that there is a likelihood of an emergency OPEC meeting. Also, a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC countries to cut production also seems to be on the cards.

    It was feared that post the removal of sanctions Iran’s export would flood the market which is already reeling under glut pressures. However, Iran has been rather slow in moving oil out of the country. The lack of investment has hurt the infrastructure which is believed to be hindering Iran’s oil export ambitions. Oil prices have also been affected by this news. Data from Israeli maritime data analytics company Windward pointed out that Iranian floating storage fell just 5.4 million barrels since July 2015. Daniel Ang, a Singapore-based analyst at Phillip Futures opined "It is not really surprising to see oil storage remaining high even as sanctions were lifted. It would likely take time before they find buyers for their oil and to make matters worse, we are in a period of abundant supply. It is not going to be easy to sell that much oil in a short period of time”

    Oil prices rose despite the EIA's weekly petroleum status report confirming that US crude oil stockpiles surpassed 500 million barrels for the first time last week. US commercial crude inventories increased by 7.8 million barrels, pushing total US oil stockpiles to 502.7 MMbbls., higher than analysts’ expectation of 4.8 million barrels rise. Stockpiles have increased significantly indicating that storage is close close to capacity.

    Analysts were however sounded cautious about the recovery of prices. ANZ noted "Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term as a risk-off environment and further supply growth keeps investor sentiment weak”. Singapore-based BMI Research also holds similar opinion. They believe oil prices will stay “low and volatile” in the months ahead. BMI Research forecast average price of WTI will touch $39.50 a barrel and Brent will touch $40 a barrel this year.

    Oil prices have fallen over 70 percent since their peak in June 2014 on account of rising supply as well as a dip in demand.
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