Oil to take further beating as IAEA’s report paves way for removal of Iran’s sanctions

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 15, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    FXStreet (Mumbai) - The IAEA following a meeting in Vienna today will likely publish its report confirming that Iran has curtailed its nuclear program as agreed with world powers. The Fars news agency reported that Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has said "The IAEA will issue its final report on Friday to confirm Iran has met its commitments under the JCPOA”. This report that will pave way for the western sanctions being removed, spells more bad news for the oil market which already under pressure to fight global glut. Oil fell below $30 per barrel today for the second time this week.

    Brent crude fell more than 4.5% to $29.46 while US WTI fell to $29.47. Crude oil had collapsed by more than 65% to a 12-year low on Tuesday as well.

    Iran has the fourth largest proven oil reserves in the world and once it begins pumping it will add to the existent 1 million barrels a day of over supply which has caused oil prices to drop more than 70 since the middle of 2014. Commerzbank analysts noted "With sanctions on Iran likely to be lifted, more oil is flooding the markets.” Global crude production is estimated to have already exceeded by between half a million and 2 million barrels per day.

    OPEC at its Vienna meeting on 4th December refused to budge from its policy of pumping record volumes to defend market share. The OPEC decided to increase its collective output ceiling to 31.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from the previous 30 million. With the recent face-off between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two of OPEC’s largest producers, it is unlikely that that any deal to slash output will be struck. The growing conflict, it is feared will make the two producers even more adamant than before. Tariq Zahir, at New York's Tyche Capital Advisors, told Reuters "We feel the Saudis will pump even more and a price war between them and the Iranians will drive us well into the $20 levels.”

    OPEC had in November 2014 abandoned its earlier policy of controlling oil price and adopted the market share strategy championed by Saudi Arabia to drive out US shale producers from the market. The strategy resulted in slump in oil price which has led OPEC to incur huge financial costs.

    Add to that, Russian exports have reached a post-Soviet era high in 2015. The U.S. Energy Information Administration showed inventories of crude oil and refined products at new record highs. Stockpile of crude oil was noted to have risen 234,000 barrels last week.

    While production is on the rise, demand for oil is slipping. Slowdown in China, which second largest consumer of oil has hit prices hard. OPEC forecast demand for its crude oil will decline to 2020. Removal of subsidies and implantation of price controls on petroleum products introduced by some governments in the face of low oil prices will likely restrict demand for oil. Demand growth is estimated to be lower in 2016 compared to 2015.

    Commerzbank cut its 2016 forecast for oil prices, changing its year-end expectation for Brent to $50 per barrel, down from a previous forecast of $63. Barclays analysts’ forecast is more grim. Barclay’s forecast for the average price of Brent and WTI respectively to $37 per barrel in 2016, down from $60 and $56 previously.
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