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Outlook for the Dollar: Dissecting the Bull - BBH

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Jan 18, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, notes that the US dollar remains strong against most currencies while the exceptions are the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and euro though the franc and euro pulled back in the US afternoon before the weekend.

    Key Quotes

    “The greenback is still appreciating on a trade-weighted basis, which is the metric that counts in assessing its impact on the overall economy.

    It is not about the dollar at the moment. It may be more helpful to think of the dollar at the fulcrum, or the center of the see-saw. On one side of are the funding currencies and on the other side are the assets. The technical indicators are not encouraging traders or investors to resist the current forces. The failure of the recovery in the US stock market on Thursday to lift Asia (and Europe) seems to be a strong hint that the reversal in the market has to come from somewhere else.

    The euro remains in a $1.08-1.10 trading range. There have been several false breaks. Last week the ranges held. The low was $1.0805, and the high was $1.0985. Given the technical readings, and the fact that the US two-year premium over German has fallen by 20 bp since late last year, and is trending lower, the immediate risk is to the euro's upside.

    The $1.1010-1.1015 area is important, housing a previous Fibonacci retracement objective (50% of decline since October 15) and the upper Bollinger Band. Above there is $1.1060, the high from December 15. A break of this would target the $1.1120-40 area.

    The dollar fell to JPY116.50 before the weekend. This is the lowest it has been since late August when it dipped briefly below JPY116.20. In addition to the equity market drop that weighed on dollar, the US-Japan 10-year interest rate spread is at its narrowest since late-October, having fallen by 25 bp since late last year. A break of the JPY116.00 targets JPY115.60-115.85. Below there is JPY113.70.

    It seems reasonable to expect Japanese officials to caution against too strong of a yen and reminding market participants that currencies should reflect fundamentals. However, in the current environment, we do not think actual material intervention is likely. A stronger yen, coupled with the drop in oil prices and disappointing economic data could change the dynamics. If it were to persist, the risk of extending QQE would likely increase.

    Sterling has fallen in eight of the ten sessions here in 2016. It has fallen nearly five cents over this period. It closed below its lower Bollinger Band in three of last week's five sessions, including the Friday, when it fell to $1.4260. During the down draft, the five-day moving average has been catching the highs. It is found near $1.4415. It is difficult to find meaningful support for sterling, but the next target is the 2010 low near $1.4230. The big target that is looming nearer is $1.40.

    The US dollar pushed above CAD1.45 for the first time since April 2003. If resistance is supposed to denote where supply comes in, the charts are not particularly helpful now. However, perhaps, appreciating that the $0.68 round psychological level for Canadians is equivalent to CAD1.47 may be suggestive of the next target, on the way to CAD1.50, which is a much more important level.

    The speed of the greenback's recent ascent leaves support at a distance. The upper Bollinger Band is comes in near CAD1.4450, and additional support is likely near CAD1.4400. The five-day moving average, which the greenback has not closed below since trading resumed on January 2, is found near CAD1.4340.

    The Australian dollar posted a big outside down day before the weekend that carried it to its lowest level since March 2009. The long-term trend line, drawn off the 2001 and 2008 lows, comes in now near $0.7140 though the $0.7000 area is the first important hurdle. There may be some interesting chart points near $0.6780, but $0.6500 is the next significant target.”
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