Plaza Accord numero dos? Not likely - TDS

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 17, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Analysts at TD Securities explained that with the G20 ministerial/central bank governor’s meeting in China just around the corner, speculation has grown of FX intervention on the global scale akin to the Plaza Accord that would be directed towards weakening the USD. "We think this is unlikely".

    Key Quotes:

    "While we believe that the Federal Reserve would prefer to prevent excessive USD strength, we think an interventionist policy — actual or vocal — is very difficult to engineer at this time at the G20 Summit. In particular, we think it would be difficult to get the ECB, BoJ or the PBoC to accept a weak USD policy given that they are running contrarian policy themselves.

    Communicating USD differentiation across FX is too difficult to craft without a significant repricing across assets. That said, we also consider the counterfactual. Ultimately, we do not rule it out but view global intervention to undermine the USD as improbable, and a circumstance that would require a large one-off devaluation in USD/CNY—a risk we also view as unlikely. Instead, we see an emerging risk for central banks to pursue independent and discretionary interventionist policy. "
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