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Positioning on ECB's dovishness - BAML

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Nov 10, 2015.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

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    FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that we are roughly half way through the waiting period between the October and December ECB meetings.

    Key Quotes:

    "The October meeting surprised by not only signaling action for December, but for that action to include the possibility of a depo rate cut. Not surprisingly the market repriced the probability of a depo rate cut meaningfully.

    We took advantage of that move to take off our 2y1y EONIA position, recommended tactical flatteners in 10y-30y Bunds and a long in 5y German cash, as well as continuing to recommend longs in EUR rates vs the US and longs in real yields. We revised our year- end Bund yield forecasts to 50bp, as we expected the combination of rate cut expectations and QE extensions to maintain yields around the lower end of the 50-75bp trading range that we have been discussing since May."
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