Previews of key data releases for the US - Nomura

Discussion in 'Fundamental Analysis' started by FXStreet_Team, Feb 11, 2016.

  1. FXStreet_Team

    FXStreet_Team Well-Known Member Trader

    Oct 7, 2015
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    Analysts at Nomura noted the forthcoming data for the US.

    Key Quotes:

    "Import prices: Although petroleum prices have weighed on import prices, nonpetroleum import prices have been flat to declining on a monthly basis since April 2014. Crude oil prices fell sharply in January, and the dollar appreciated during the month. Both movements should put further downward pressure on import prices. As a result, Consensus forecasts a 1.5% decline in import prices for January. Low import prices of consumer goods should continue to weigh on domestic retail prices of consumer goods.

    Retail sales: We expect favorable fundamentals (solid labor market performance, low energy prices, relatively elevated savings rate) to enable consumers to continue to support economic growth, while the industrial sector fights through various challenges. We forecast some bounce back in core retail sales (excludes auto, gasoline, building material, and food services and drinking places sales) in January, especially in certain categories of sales (e.g., apparel), which may have been weighed down by the unseasonably warm winter weather in December. However, we expect the rebound in sales to be gradual, as the data suggest that consumer activity lost some momentum at the end of last year. On balance, we forecast a 0.2% rise in core retail sales (Consensus: 0.3%). Continued declines in retail gasoline sales in January probably weighed on sales excluding autos, which we expect will fall by 0.2% (Consensus: 0.0%). Vehicle sales increased modestly in January and should mitigate the decline in total retail sales, which we expect will fall by 0.1% (Consensus: 0.1%)."
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